PRESIDENT BOUNCES BACK – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  After an erratic week in the Rasmussen tracker, the president is back at 50% today.  We note that other polls have him lower, but that some of those other polls have him at 47% or 48%.  We hope this is an open for next week's election.  From Rasmussen: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 35% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 43% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -8.

And Rasmussen has another poll result that's quite interesting: 

When to comes to the midterm elections, Democrats have a slight edge when it comes to what voters think is best for the next session of Congress.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 55% of Likely U.S. Voters say it’s important that Democrats win at least one of the chambers of Congress in the upcoming elections, with 48% who say it's Very Important to their vote. Only slighter fewer voters (51%) think it's important for Republicans to remain in control of the entire Congress, including 40% who feel it's Very Important.

Forty-two percent (42%) say a Democratic takeover of at least one congressional chamber is not important to their vote in the upcoming election, including 31% who say it’s Not At All Important. Forty-six percent (46%) say the GOP retaining control of Congress is not important to their vote, with 39% who rate it Not At All Important.

COMMENT:  I think those numbers track pretty well with the state-by-state and district-by-district polls that we see.  There will be many close elections next week.  It's probable that the Dems will win the House, but it may only be by five or six seats, far from a true working majority.  There are still a number of moderate Democrats who will not commit political suicide to satisfy Maxine Waters. 

As always with midterms, the key next week will be turnout.  Many, many races are showing candidates only five points or so apart.  Turnout will determine the winners.

October 29, 2018